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French Paris Bank: This is the European Silver Pigeon of the euro is still the reason for the rise of FX168 hearing of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday (February 18th) recorded January policy meeting showed the economic outlook for the euro area in the downside risk, lower oil prices and wage growth slowed drag on the formation of inflation, and that the central bank will use all necessary policy tool. The minutes of the ECB meeting were not new, and the wording was dovish. Conference records show that monetary policy needs to reassure the market, indicating that the ECB has no restrictions on the deployment of monetary policy tools, and need to reconfirm the forward-looking guidelines. The minutes of the meeting, as expected by the market, were dovish, but the euro did not weaken. BNP Paribas, the Bank of Paris, discusses the prospects for the euro dollar until the middle of this year in the latest week’s customer report, and discloses the logic behind the price forecast in the coming months. The underlying reason for the euro’s short-term strengthening is, in our view, that the fragile economic environment will force the fed to postpone tightening interest rates further, while the euro area maintains a current account surplus of 25 billion euros per month. The euro is very low compared to the actual rate of return and SG huge debt purchase plan theory will stimulate regional capital outflows, because local investors may be due to chase higher returns and to find foreign markets for investment fall over each other. However, these factors can not cover the fragile environment of the risk environment, the euro is also supported by the current account surplus of 25 billion euros. The euro is doing better this year, mainly because the deterioration of the risk situation has made local investors not far from investing heavily in overseas assets. Our economists expect the Fed will not raise interest rates this year, with the current interest rate futures market pricing, but compared to our expectations, the forecast for the European Central Bank easing efforts more radical, we change the Fed’s stance for prediction showed that European monetary policy differences on the influence of the exchange rate decreased. Although we believe that the euro zone’s easing will promote the proximal yield in the 2 quarter fell 15 basis points, but the current and previously fed about quarterly interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to significantly narrowed, which will limit the euro dollar fell sharply this year may, at the same time, short-term market risk is expected to make poor atmosphere we are relatively optimistic about the euro dollar. The French bank of Paris now expects the euro dollar to rise to 1.1600 at the end of the 2 quarter, slightly down to 1.1400 at the end of the year. Beijing time 7:26, Euro dollar 1.1105. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

法国巴黎银行:这就是欧银纪要偏鸽欧元仍涨的理由   FX168讯 欧洲央行(ECB)周四(2月18日)公布的1月政策会议记录显示,欧元区经济前景处于下行风险,油价下跌和薪资增长放缓对通胀形成拖累,并表示央行必要时将动用一切政策工具。欧洲央行会议纪要了无新意,措辞偏向鸽派。   会议记录显示,货币政策需要安抚市场,表明欧洲央行在部署货币政策工具方面没有限制,需要重新确认前瞻指引。   会议纪要一如市场原先的预期偏向鸽派,但欧元并没有因此走弱。   法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)在最新一周的客户报告中探讨了欧元 美元直至今年年中的走势前景,并公开了对于汇价在未来数月报价预测的背后逻辑。   该行在报告中写道:   欧元短线走强的背后动因在我们看来是,依然脆弱的经济环境将迫使美联储延后收紧加息,而欧元区又保持了每月250亿欧元的经常帐盈余。   欧元极低实际收益率和相对于法兴规模庞大购债计划理论上会刺激地区资金外流,因本地投资者可能因追逐更高收益的关系而争先恐后地寻觅外国市场进行投资。然而这些因素无法覆盖脆弱的风险环境这一大背景,欧元也受到250亿欧元经常帐盈余的支持。欧元今年的表现较佳,主因是风险形势恶化令本地投资者并不远大力投资海外资产。   我们的经济学家预计美联储今年将不会加息,符合利率期货市场当前的定价,但相比预期,我们对于欧洲央行的宽松力度预测更为激进,我们对于美联储立场预测的变化显示欧美货币政策差异对于汇价的影响力降低。   虽然我们认为欧元区的宽松举措将推动近端收益率在2季度下跌15个基点左右,但当前这与原先美联储大约每季度加息25个基点的预期差异显著收窄,这将限制欧元 美元今年大幅下挫的可能,同时市场短期风险氛围不佳的预期让我们相对更为看好欧元 美元的走势。   法国巴黎银行目前预计欧元 美元2季度末将升至1.1600,年底时则略为跌至1.1400。   北京时间7:26,欧元 美元报1.1105。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: